Trendwende ?

Seit einiger Zeit ist der Trend an den Märkten steigend. Ursache ist eine klare Verbesserung verschiedener Konjunkturindikatoren, die darauf hinweisen, dass sich die Lage im Laufe des Jahres stabilisieren wird. Es hat ein Stimmungsumschwung stattgefunden. Diese Grosswetterlage bestimmt immer noch die Hauptrichtung an den Märkten. Die Schweinegrippe ist ein Thema, was die generelle Tendenz aber nicht zu brechen vermag, auch wenn wir z.B. vorgestern eine Korrektur hatten.

Severe Recession (IMF) up to 2010

The IMF called it "the most severe recession since World War II."

A modest recovery is predicted for 2010, but at 1.9 percent would be "sluggish relative to past recoveries."

"These projections are based on an assessment that financial market stabilization will take longer than previously thought, even with strong efforts by policymakers," Oliver Blanchard, IMF chief economist and Jose Vinals, head of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department, said in a joint statement.

"Thus, financial conditions in the mature markets are projected to improve only slowly, as insolvency concerns are diminished by greater clarity over losses on bad assets and injections of public capital, and counter-party risks and market volatility are reduced."

The agency, which represents 185 member countries, predicts that global unemployment levels will rise through 2010 before receding. Developed economies such as North America and Western Europe are expected to contract 3.8 percent in total.
Negative growth

IMF projections for 2009:

Japan: -6.2 percent

Russia -6 percent

Germany -5.6 percent

United Kingdom -4 percent

Mexico -3.7 percent

United States -2.8 percent

Brazil -1.3percent

Meanwhile, emerging economies such as China and India are projected to grow, albeit more slowly at 6

Tuesday situation

Stocks rose for six straight weeks, propelling the S&P 500 by 29% as investors bet that the economy is closer to stabilizing. That same optimism is lifting stocks now, but will peter out if the economic and corporate news doesn't start to improve, said Dean Barber, president at Barber Financial Group.

"This is a classic bear market rally," Barber said. "People want to say that the market is telegraphing that the recession will soon be over, but there isn't anything fundamental that supports that."

He said that the rally is being driven partly by the vast amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines and the lack of appealing options, due to low-yielding money market accounts and short-term bond yields.

Market breadth Tuesday was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers four to one on volume of almost 1.67 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners three to one on volume of 2.45 billion shares.

What is ahead ?

The only way to lay the groundwork for a long-term sustainable market recovery is if investors don't delude themselves into thinking that it's nothing but good news ahead.

"In order for stocks to really stabilize, you're going to have to see more economic data justify it," Joy said. "We need more convincing evidence that the hints of recovery are for real. The signs of improvement so far are tentative."

New Debts - when are they just a poison ?

In den bisherigen Importländern werden die Verbraucher auf Dauer weniger konsumieren

Nach Eindämmen der Krise dürfte es dann aber selbst unter günstigen Umständen keine Rückkehr zum früheren Verhalten geben: Denn in den bisherigen Importländern werden die Verbraucher wegen ihrer hohen Schulden auf Dauer weniger konsumieren, gleichzeitig werden die Banken vorsichtiger agieren. Und in vielen Ländern wird die Bevölkerung unter den höheren Steuern stöhnen, die benötigt werden, um die Zinsen auf die Staatsschulden zu zahlen.

Auch in Zukunft wird es Welthandel geben, Länder mit Handelsüberschüssen und solche mit Defiziten. Doch spricht einiges dafür, dass die privaten Akteure mit dem „Wachstumshormon“ Schulden künftig behutsamer umgehen werden, ebenso – hoffentlich – Notenbanken und Regierungen. Die Politik sollte nicht versuchen, diese marktwirtschaftlichem Kalkül entspringende langsamere Gangart zu konterkarieren, zum Beispiel indem sie den Außenhandel durch Subventionen aufbläht. Vielmehr sollte sie die Marktkräfte stärken, etwa durch Verzicht auf Eingriffe in den Devisenmarkt. Oder durch den Abschluss der Doha-Welthandelsrunde; das baute Handels- und Investitionsbarrieren ab. Kreditvergabe und Schuldenmachen sind unverzichtbarer Treibstoff für das Wirtschaftswachstum. Aber zu stark eingesetzt – das ist eine Lehre dieser Krise –, wird daraus ein zerstörerisches Gift.

A Bullish Week befre us ?

On the docket
Tuesday: Consumer borrowing costs are expected to have fallen by 1.5% in February, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists. Costs showed a surprise jump of 1.8% in January. The consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve is due out at around 2:00 p.m. ET.

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), as per usual, is the first Dow component to report quarterly results. The aluminum maker is expected to have lost 57 cents per share, according to analysts surveyed by First Call. Alcoa earned 44 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago. The report is due after the market close.

Wednesday: The February wholesale inventories report is due in the morning from the Commerce Department. Inventories are expected to have plunged for the sixth consecutive month, falling 0.6% after falling 0.7% in January.

The weekly crude inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is due in the morning.